There is an atmosphere of unease in the police and the military. A bill which threatens the retirement funds of Military Uniformed Personnel (MUP) is being discussed in the Senate. Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno posits that the country cannot realistically sustain the financial burdens brought about by the current pension system. He says that the system would result in a 25 percent increase in public debt by 2030. Thus, there is a need for pension reform, because, unlike regular government employees, MUP do not contribute to their own retirement fund. Moreover, they are essentially promoted a rank with respect to their pensions when they do retire. The government debt already stands at a whopping 13.856 trillion pesos as of March this year. The debt-to-GDP ratio stands at a worrying 61% as of this year. There are only three possible scenarios that could take place: either the MUP pension system is reformed, the government sources funds or cuts funds from elsewhere, or the country risks financial collapse.
I would argue our leaders sooner would either risk financial collapse or source or cut funds from elsewhere rather than risk antagonizing the military. The reason can be summed up in two words: “coup d'état”.
The military is unique among all other government institutions. It alone has the potential to overthrow a government through violent means. Let us not forget that it was the defections of then-Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile and Armed Forces chief of staff Fidel V. Ramos that eventually led to the fall of former president Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in 1986. Coup attempts have also been common in the post-Marcos era, with the first Aquino and Arroyo administrations bearing the brunt of the attempts. To remedy this, post-Marcos presidents have employed a tactic of patronage distribution to placate the military and stave off potential coup attempts. The chief of staff position with its salary and pension benefits is given as a reward to incentivize loyalty to the regime in what has been called a “revolving door policy”. Some chiefs of staff serve mere days in office before they are replaced with the next person to receive their much-awaited reward. Any Philippine president must ensure the military’s loyalty to avoid a coup d'état. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is no different.
Illustrated by Neil
President Marcos Jr. already had to deal with coup rumors not even a year into his administration after he reappointed Andres Centino as Armed Forces chief of staff, causing Department of National Defense (DND) officer-in-charge (OIC) Jose Faustino Jr. to resign in protest. Now, his Finance Secretary is lobbying for a reform that would effectively cut pensions in the military, which will surely damage his esteem among its ranks beyond repair. Marcos Jr. cannot afford to antagonize the military even more, especially with Sara Duterte as the vice president. It will do us well to remember that it was former president Rodrigo Duterte who doubled the salaries of MUP in the first place.
Antagonistic armed forces with a popular vice president in their good graces is a very bad recipe for regime stability, and Marcos Jr. knows it. The military is the kingmaker in Philippine politics. A regime’s survival depends heavily on its support, giving it a high degree of leverage when it comes to matters that could potentially prove prejudicial to its interests. Thus, it is highly likely that the proposed MUP pension reforms will never see the light of day.
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