Contrary to prevailing expectations, the Marcos administration has not been as friendly to China as the previous administration had been. Tensions between the two countries in the South China Sea are once again flaring, evident in an incident where the Chinese used lasers that temporarily blinded members of the Philippine Coast Guard earlier this year. President Marcos has now returned to a policy of cooperation with the United States, as new Enhanced Defense Cooperation agreed (EDCA) sites have been approved in the north and west of the country. The scheduling of joint military exercises with the Americans has also been approved, which, in turn, has raised eyebrows in Beijing.
Given our renewed adversarial relationship with China, it is imperative that we get into the heads of foreign policymakers in Beijing. Like a good chess player, we need the ability to anticipate and thus prepare for our opponent’s moves. How? We need to clear our minds and practice looking at the pieces on the board from their perspective.
Illustration by Neil
To grasp the trajectory of the board, let us first expound on how the pieces have gotten to their current positions. After nearly a hundred years of turmoil, foreign invasions, and internal strife, the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949 under the leadership of Mao Zedong. Mao famously led the cultural revolution and the great leap forward, which resulted in millions of deaths from famine. After Mao’s death, Deng Xiaoping took over, instituting policies that helped China transform into the economic giant it is today through export-led growth (Samuels, 2013, 375-379). Chinese legitimacy then, is built upon the rising standards of living that this export-led economic growth has brought.
One thing about exports is that one needs to bring their goods to other countries to sell, mostly through ships traversing the world’s oceans. This is where the South China Sea dispute comes in, as 3.37 trillion dollars worth of trade passes through the sea annually. Nearly 40% of all Chinese exports pass through it, worth 1.47 trillion dollars annually. Furthermore, around two-thirds of Chinese gas imports and a whopping 90% of Chinese maritime crude imports pass through this body of water. Now we see why China acts so aggressively when it hears of United States (U.S.) bases in Philippine waters close to the South China Sea. This is because an American naval blockade of Chinese exports and energy imports would destroy the Chinese economy. The fires of the Chinese industry would be extinguished as factories would grind to a halt without fuel. Those factories that continue to operate would have no way of selling their products to the rest of the world. 40 years of rapid economic growth could be erased. Indeed, it is not a stretch to say that such a blockade would bring the Chinese state to its knees.
Another geostrategic area on the board is the first island chain, a chain of islands including the Philippines, Japan, and Taiwan that contain choke points between China and the Pacific Ocean. Most of the countries in this chain are U.S. allies. Control of the chain effectively means that the U.S. can block off Chinese vessels from accessing the world’s oceans in the event of a conflict. The Chinese know this, and thus their main objective has always been to wrest control of the chain from the Americans. This partly explains why they want to invade Taiwan, since it would be a breakthrough in the American containment scheme. This also explains why China is so uneasy about the EDCA sites, which are located near Taiwan and could be used by American forces in the event of a war over Taiwan.
By looking at the board through China’s eyes, we make sense of their individual moves and understand how they are all connected. By connecting the dots, we can conclude that they are all in furtherance of China’s geostrategic goals. By understanding this, we are given the ability to anticipate, even predict, China’s next move, and prepare accordingly.
In his book on the Art of War, the ancient Chinese military strategist, General Sun Tzu, once said that "If you know yourself and know your enemy, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." As ironic as this may sound, it is quite fitting to adapt the teachings of one of China's greatest military strategists to be at level in this game that the Chinese themselves started.
Additional Reference
Samuels, D. (2013). Case Studies in Comparative Politics (D. Samuels, Ed.). Pearson Education.
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